The trade brings in plenty of money already, but that’s not the full measure of its importance. Every time the Kremlin’s nuclear giant Rosatom PJSC agrees to build a new reactor, it locks in cashflows – and political clout – for potentially decades ahead.

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Russia is ‘launching new offensives’ in Ukraine, says Nato chief

Russia is ‘launching new offensives’ in Ukraine, says Nato chief

Atomic commerce creates relationships that last. It involves large upfront costs – with Russia usually providing the credit – and long-term agreements to service plants, train their operators and replenish fuel.

That kind of financial and technical collaboration can strengthen diplomatic ties too.

“This is part of the great-power competition that we’re in right now”, says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear-power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington. Russia’s leaders “see nuclear trade as a way to bolster alliances”.

The task is made easier by a dearth of competition. Russia continued investing in nuclear-fuel and technology manufacturing after the Soviet Union collapsed, even as the industry atrophied in other parts of the world.

That’s one reason why the US and its European allies – who’ve been weighing sanctions against the Russian nuclear company since early in the war – haven’t followed through. The concern is that shutting off their own nuclear industries from Russian supplies would be too economically painful.

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Rosatom provides about one-fifth of the enriched uranium needed for the 92 reactors in the US. In Europe, utilities that generate power for 100 million people rely on the company.

The RUSI data is sourced from a third-party commercial provider and based on Russian customs records, says Darya Dolzikova, the think-tank’s sanctions analyst. She says the figures are incomplete and don’t capture business with sanctioned countries like Iran. Numbers were validated where possible by comparing them with publicly available export information.

“Nuclear energy projects have very long timelines, so it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusions,” she said. “But the data does point to a prioritisation of markets that may be reticent to sanction Russian nuclear energy exports or entities.”

The figures show Nato members including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia continued to purchase Rosatom fuel last year, amid Ukrainian pleas to shut down the trade after Russia hijacked Europe’s biggest power plant.

“Rosatom receives billions of dollars every year from their business abroad”, says Petro Kotin, the president of Ukraine’s nuclear utility Energoatom. “The money that they’re receiving is financing the war”. Ukraine imposed sanctions on Rosatom this month, and urged other nations to follow suit.

Even in Ukraine, though, nine reactors still under Kyiv’s control rely on stockpiled Russian fuel. It’s taken years of planning, aided by US advisers, to make the switch to Westinghouse Electric, says Kotin, and full diversification won’t be possible for another three or four years.

Countries like Bulgaria, Finland and Slovakia have announced plans to swap suppliers too. That hasn’t prevented Rosatom from expanding its European footprint.

Hungary is providing aid for two new reactors that were awarded to Rosatom without public tender. Russia is covering 80 per cent of the cost with a €10 billion (US$10.6 billion) loan.

By the time construction is completed next decade, the project will be one of eastern Europe’s biggest foreign investments.